General Chat

lol

mick that is sooooo funny

lmao here he he he he

Bev

IF you were to try to get clever and get a syndicate of 14 million people to buy a ticket with a series containing ALL the possibilities, theoretically guaranteeing at least one jackpot plus minor prizes,win,
you still wouldnt win because there is (allegedly)in place a " Scam"( for want of a better word) filter to prevent this amount of people buying this series of tickets.....
Bob

there was a syndicate at work........
22 guys put £1 each for their choice of numbers,
(Some had more shares) and
there was £57 going on, for both draws( wed, and sat) at the end of a year we didnt even( now theres a word) break even

Bob

if you were talking about a raffle then yes the more tickets you buy the more chance you have of winning and again the lesser tickets sold the more chance you have of winning.
But to chose 6 numbers from 49 isnt going to change unless you have a ticket with every combination of 6 from 49. Not sure how many that would be. If its less than the jackpot then go for it!!!
LOL You would then be certain of a win and hope you dont have to share. Not sure if the irish lottery has less numbers to chose from as a lot of people say its easier to win on that one than the UK one.

(and dont forget your favourite little lost cousin if you do win big)

.

A blonde finds herself in serious trouble.
Her business has gone bust and she's in dire
financial straits. She's so desperate that
she decides to ask God for help.

She begins to pray... 'God, please
help me. I've lost my business and
if I don't get some money,
I'm going to lose my house as well.


Please let me win the lottery .'

Lottery night comes, and somebody else
wins.
She again prays... 'God, please let me win
the lottery! I've lost my business,
my house and I'm going to lose my
car as well.'

Lottery night comes and she still has
no luck.

Once again, she prays... 'My God, why
have you forsaken me? I've lost my
business, my house, and my car.
My children are starving..


I don't often ask You for help, and
I've always been a good servant to You.

PLEASE let me win the lottery
just this one time so I can get my
life back in order.'

Suddenly there is a blinding flash of
light as the heavens open.

The blonde is overwhelmed by the
Voice of God, Himself...



'Sweetheart, work with Me on this.....
Buy a ticket.'

and even this one!

*goes and sits in the sad persons' corner*

lol

That factoring wasn't part of the equation, - although it probably would be in real life, I agree.

BUT...

I worked it on 99% accuracy would mean that there was a 1% tolerance for false + and false -

Perhaps I think too much :-(((

The way it is explained:

The illness strikes one in 10,000. Forget the test for a moment and you can see that you are far more likely NOT to have the illness than to have it.(9,999:1)

Now imagine a million people take the test. About a hundred or so will actually have the illness.

Because the test is 99% accurate, 99 out of those hundred will be correctly diagnosed as having it.

On the other hand, 999,900 won't have the illness, but one percent of them (or 9,999) will be wrongly disgnosed as having it.

So are you one of the 99 who have it, or the 9,999 who have been wrongly disgnosed?

You are 100 times more likely to be in the safe category.

It's purely hypothetical, but interesting as a study of incorrect intuitive reasoning.

Nope......its no good......I have tried and tried and my calculator is dividing instead of multiplying and when I get any sort of answer it cuts out.......told OH I needed a new one, it is 20 odd years old......

....should use the brain, but it has gone into hibernation because it thinks it is winter already.....

......x

Without calculator

Odds I could have it 10,000:1

Odds I have it after the tests Evens +/- 1%

Is that right?

I couldnt work it out with the computer never mind the calculator!

But when I saw the explanation...it makes sense. Totally counter intuitive, though.

In fact, you are less than 1% likely to have the illness.

I need my calculator :-((

Odds are interesting things - very poorly understood - especially by me.

Here's a Derren Brown question...

Lets suppose, for the sake of discussion, that an illness affects one in ten thousand people. It is fatal - there is no cure.

However, there is a test that is 99% reliable.

You take the test by giving a blood sample, and the results come by post a few days later.

The results are positive.

What are the odds (mathematically speaking) that you have the disease?

Go with your first thoughts....the fact that it is posed as a puzzle should obviously make you think there is something afoot - and you would be right.

Eldrick

lol, I think with the massive odds we need an actuary with a gambler's mentality for this one.

I expect we have all played the statistical odds games with dice and cards. I cannot ever remember getting the same odds after each experiment.

Mind you with so many millions up for grabs tomorrow I might risk 30 bob :-))

When the lottery started I asked an accountant friend how the odds worked. If you buy 1 ticket your chance of winning the big one are 14000000/1
As the numbers are randomly generated the odds of winning if you have 2 tickets are;

13999999/1

Having said that I've just collected a tenner for OH

I did know of someone who used to buy 2 identical tickets. Yes it sounds silly but his logic was thus;

I was going to buy 2 tickets anyway so if I buy 2 the same and win the jackpot, If I have to share it with others i will have twice as much as them. Instead of having a 1 in 56 chance of winning a tenner, I'll have a 1 in 55

Yes, I understand all that....

but it doesn't actually address the odds increasing, decreasing or staying the same when buying more than one ticket.....possibly because of precisely what you say - it is a commercial site and it wants people to believe that they increase their chances by buying multiple tickets...

which they may do, but not according to the maths of it...

I think.............

The way in which the odds for the UK Lotto Draw (also known as the UK National Lottery) are calculated is highly complex, based on the odds of drawing any six numbers from 49 if you want to win the jackpot, or any 3 numbers from 49 if you just want to win a quick tenner. However, the odds against even winner £10 are ridiculously high, unless you join a lottery syndicate scheme to increase the number of lines which you play on the lottery. The odds are calculated as follows:

The Jackpot - 6 Numbers (Typical prize: £2 million)
6 numbers are drawn at random from the set of integers between 1 and 49, which means there are 49!/(6!*(49-6)!) combinations of numbers - this means that the jackpot chance is 1 in 13,983,816 or approximately 1 in 14 million.


5 Numbers + Bonus Number (Typical prize: £100,000)
You are still matching 6 numbers from the 1 to 49 set as above, but you can now do it in 6 different ways (by dropping each of the main numbers in turn), therefore the chance is 1 in 13,983,816/6, which works out as 1 in 2,330,636.


5 Numbers (Typical prize: £1,500)
This is 42 times more likely than getting 5 numbers + the bonus number - the chance is 1 in 2,330,636/42, which evaluates to 1 in 55,491.33333.


4 Numbers (Typical prize: £65)
Firstly, let's take the case of the first 4 of your numbers matching and the last 2 not matching.
In this single case (where each set of chances relies on the previous event occurring):

Chance that your 1st number matches a winning lottery number is 1 in 49/6.
Chance that your 2nd number matches a winning lottery number is 1 in 48/5.
Chance that your 3rd number matches a winning lottery number is 1 in 47/4.
Chance that your 4th number matches a winning lottery number is 1 in 46/3.
Chance that your 5th number doesn't match a winning number is 1 in 45/(45-2) [because there are still 2 unmatched winning numbers].
Chance that your 6th number doesn't match a winning number is 1 in 44/(44-2) [yes, still 2 unmatched winning numbers].

Now you need to accumulate all those chances by multiplying them together:
1 in (49/6)*(48/5)*(47/4)*(46/3)*(45/43)*(44/42) which is 1 in 15486.953.
Now this is the chance for that single case occurring, but there are 15 combinations of matching 4 from 6, so you divide the answer by 15 to get 1 in 15486.953/15 or 1 in 1032.4.


3 Numbers (Constant prize: £10)
Follow exactly the same scheme as the 4 match above to get these figures:
1 in (49/6)*(48/5)*(47/4)*(46/43)*(45/42)*(44/41) (which is 1 in 1133.119) for a single case.
There are 20 combinations of 3 from 6, so the chance of a 3 match is 1 in 1133.119/20 or 1 in 56.7.

Thanks Sue - will go for a look.

:-)